Why research, analyze, and further develop art crime statistics? I posed this question to myself after retracting a convoluted post on
Art Theft Central last week in which I attempted to compare art theft data from 2004 with that from 2008 as reported by the Art Loss Register (ALR data sources: "Rewarding Business fig. 3" from "The Art of the Steal" by David Shillingford in
Foreign Policy, No. 147, April 2005 p 28-9. and "Thefts by Location as reported to the ALR" from
Art Loss Register Data Dump by Marion Maneker on
Art Market Monitor 23 April 2009). My original post's objective was to present a profound interpretation of the differences in the ALR's art theft by location data between the two years; however, during my research I realized the ALR's statistical data was not as compelling as I had initially suspected. Accordingly, I have begun to reexamine my intentions and motivations for developing art crime
statistics and
data.
In When Crime Waves, Vincent Sacco states, "The successful construction of a new social problem depends upon the ability of claims-makers to impress upon an audience of lawmakers, journalists, and the members of the general public that the problem is serious and deserving of attention. One of the ways this is accomplished is through statistical arguments that provide dramatic and compelling evidence that the problem is a sizable and growing one (65)." Admittedly, art crime is not a new phenomenon, but its recently discovered connection to other illicit trades (e.g. weapons, drugs) is in fact a new concern worth impressing upon the public. But, how does one go about this?
While $6 billion is a number often quoted when discussing the size of the illicit art and antiquities trade it is a very problematic statistic because it is so large and abstract a value that it can contribute to a consumer's "number numbness (58)," and thus make it difficult for one to "appreciate the complexity or nuances of arguments about how much crime there is (59)."
As a numerate consumer I was disappointed to find after evaluating the ALR's art theft by location data that the statistics they had produced were ineffective at providing substantial information beyond where the art thefts reported to their database have occurred. The table below illustrates how the ALR's art theft by location data from 2004 and 2008 can be interpreted in two different ways (as percentages out of the entire database or out of the estimated 10,000 thefts reported annually to the ALR) and therefore lead to a variety of different conclusions.

It was refreshing to see the ALR release new art theft data; however, by presenting these numbers without a real sense of their context they revealed little compelling statistical evidence of how art theft has impacted residences, businesses, cultural institutions, and places of worship.
As the value of art continues to rise exponentially so too will the number of thefts. Although there are a number of organizations (
SAFE,
ARCA,
ALR) working to create awareness of art crime's key issues there is still work to be done. It was disconcerting to hear the other day that a well-respected art history professor had never heard of the Gardner theft. As exemplified in this case, there is an urgent need to not only break up the art historian's and museum curator's insular worlds, but also to broadcast to the general public - from the museum enthusiast to the sightseer - how this problem is effecting society on both the micro and macro levels.